Live — Last updated March 20, 2026, 5:01 PM ET

The Risk Wire

Daily deployment intelligence for systematic traders. One question, every day: Is it safe to deploy?

CRITICAL

Below the 200-Day: S&P Cracks on Quadruple Witching as Pentagon Preps Ground Troops

The S&P 500 broke below its 200-day moving average for the first time in 214 sessions, closing at 6,506 (-1.51%) on a quadruple witching Friday that saw $5.7 trillion in derivatives expire. Iraq declared force majeure on all foreign-operated oilfields, the Pentagon is preparing ground troop deployments to Iran, and Brent swung wildly between $105 and $120 before settling at $112. The VIX surged past 30 and the Russell 2000 entered correction territory.

Read full analysis

I've been trading systematic strategies on US equities and futures since 2011. Every day, I assess volatility regimes, credit conditions, breadth, momentum, and macro catalysts to decide whether it's safe to be fully deployed or whether to pull back.

The Risk Wire publishes that assessment. Not trade signals. Not stock picks. Just a daily read on market uncertainty and risk for other systematic traders.

Get the daily pulse in your inbox before the open.

Disclaimer

The Risk Wire is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing published here constitutes financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The author is not a registered financial advisor. All trading involves risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. You are solely responsible for your own investment decisions. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.