The Risk Wire

Brent Settles $118 + Powell's Dovish Easing-Bias Hold + Mag-7 Cluster Splits 3-Bull-1-Bear

S&P 500 closed 7,135.95 (-0.04%), Nasdaq 24,673.24 (+0.04%), Dow 48,861.81 (-0.57%) on its fifth straight losing day. Brent settled **$118.03 (+6%)** — the morning's CRITICAL upgrade trigger ($116) cleared decisively after Trump rejected Iran's proposal and told reporters Iran has to 'cry uncle.' FOMC held at 3.5-3.75% on an 8-4 vote — the first four-dissent FOMC since October 1992. The committee KEPT easing-bias language despite Hammack/Kashkari/Logan dissents to remove it; Miran dissented FOR a cut. Powell's last presser pinned inflation rise on 'global oil prices that resulted from the conflict in the Middle East.' Senate Banking advanced Warsh 13-11 on the first fully-partisan committee Fed-chair vote in history; floor vote week of May 11. Mag-7 AMC: GOOGL +4% AH (Cloud +63% to $20B, smashed estimates), AMZN modest beat (AWS +28% ex-FX, fastest in 15 quarters), MSFT -1.49% AH despite beat-on-every-metric (Azure +40%), META -6.15% AH on capex-raise to $125-145B. Risk holds RED. Asymmetry shifts to ~1:5 against — Brent regime worsened structurally but the demand-side cohort largely cleared the morning's bull-case bar. PCE Friday is the next variable; deployment remains parked.